At 19:00 on June 16, Beijing time, the Bank of England released the interest rate resolution and meeting minutes. Economists said that when the pound was in trouble, the Bank of England had no choice but to raise interest rates by more than 25 basis points.
At the time of the Bank of England's appeal, members of the monetary policy committee were meeting on Threadneedle Street to discuss how to change the UK's monetary policy in the face of soaring domestic inflation, economic slowdown and fed interest rate hikes.
Frances Coppola, an independent economist, said: "since the main reason for current inflation is the rapid rise in the price of the dollar in the global market, the Bank of England has no choice but to defend the pound. Therefore, it will act in accordance with its own expectations of the Federal Reserve."
The Bank of England cannot implement monetary policy in the foam, and will be keenly aware that the excessive interest rate hike in the United States will not only affect the monetary situation in Britain, but also affect the pound. Therefore, in the face of the radical Federal Reserve, they must be bold.
Coppola said: "last time, the Bank of England did not follow the Fed strongly enough, causing the pound to fall. Therefore, this time it must be more hawkish. I expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates by at least 50 basis points, which may be more like 75 or 100 basis points."
John Hardy, head of foreign exchange strategy at Saxo Bank, said: "the Bank of England may be forced to raise interest rates by a larger margin (the market tends to raise interest rates by only 25 basis points), otherwise the pound may face further comprehensive blows."
Robert Howard, a market analyst, said: "the weakness of the pound has exacerbated the dilemma faced by the Bank of England, which is trying to curb the rise of UK inflation while avoiding too much damage to the UK economy.
If the pound falls to 1.20 against the dollar, it may reduce the possibility that more than two members of the monetary policy committee will vote to maintain the bank interest rate at 1% next month, because they are worried that this will exacerbate the pound and inflation. "
Steffan ball, an economist at Goldman Sachs, said that the Bank of England seemed to want to suspend interest rate hikes in the second half of this year because it feared that it would lead to a recession.
However, if the pound continues to depreciate, the Bank of England may not be able to tolerate a pause in interest rate hikes.
Bauer said: "if the UK economic outlook deteriorates beyond our baseline forecast, the suspension of the interest rate hike cycle is still a risk, but the further rise of long-term inflation expectations or the further sharp depreciation of the pound may lead to a faster rate hike in the coming months."
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